StatXP vs. Betting Markets
By Colin Bowers
Filed under eSports
In addition to predicting individual matches, the StatXP Elo model allows us to predict who will win the 2018 Worlds. We will iterate on these predictions as the tournament progresses and issue a more definitive set of predictions before the knock-out rounds, but here is where things stand right now.
The StatXP column shows StatXP’s predictions and the Odds Shark column uses implied odds from Odds Shark. These odds are normalized to 100% since Odds Shark’s implied odds add up to 130% total. The Difference column shows the delta between StatXP’s predictions and Odds Shark’s.
Overall, there is a large amount of agreement between the models. Both have the same top 8 teams and agree that KT Rolster and Invictus Gaming are two of the three tournament co-favorites. As discussed in the StatXP Elo model explainer, our model is higher on Flash Wolves than the consensus. They are not from LCK or LPL but had a dominant 2018 in LMS and finished 4th at the 2018 Mid-Season Invitational. Conversely, the StatXP model is lower on tournament favorite Royal Never Give Up than Odds Shark. RNG had a middling, by their standards, 2018 regular season, but they did win the LPL Spring and Summer Playoffs as well as the Mid-Season Invitational. While we believe in our model, given RNG’s recent performance in major tournaments, we’re inclined to believe we are too low on their chances in South Korea.
Ultimately these issues will be settled in the Battle Arena. Stay tuned to StatXP for more updates and analysis on the LoL 2018 Worlds!