Who Will Win LoL Worlds 2018?
By Colin Bowers
Filed Under eSports
Welcome to StatXP’s coverage of the League of Legends 2018 World Championships. For the uninitiated, the Worlds are the conclusion of the 2018 LoL competitive season and feature the best teams from around the world. StatXP will be covering Worlds with a daily prediction of the next day’s games, since they occur early in the morning, as well as running team ranking. We will also post daily predictions on who we expect to advance to the knock-out rounds and then who we expect to win once they make it.
All our LoL predictions are built of off our Elo model of club teams. Elo is system for ranking the relative skills levels of players or teams that was originally developed for chess. A more thorough description of Elo can found in Nate Silver’s “interview” with FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo model. StatXP’s model uses data from professional LoL leagues and international competitions going back to 2016. A special thanks to Tim “Magic” Sevenhuysen, Oracle’s Elixir, and Riot Games for making this data publicly available!
While getting StatXP ready to launch, we’ve been beta-testing the model based on the World Play-In rounds. Of the 43 games, the Elo model correctly predicted 37, with the only significant upset being Infinity eSports shocking win over Edward Gaming. Like everyone else watching Worlds, we considered EDG to be heavy favorites, 89% to be exact. That upset aside, the StatXP model performed well during the Play-In rounds and is ready for the Main Event.
Every competitive day during the Main Event, StatXP will be publishing three model updates. The first will be a prediction of the next day’s games. Wednesday’s projections are shown below.
These predictions represent each team’s chance of winning a singe game based on their current Elo rating. Elo thinks that Flash Wolves have a 93% chance of beating Phong Vu Buffalo from the VCS. Per our model, tomorrow’s closest game is tournament favorite Royal Never Give Up against Cloud9 from the NA LCS. The StatXP model gives RNG a 63% chance of winning this contest.
We will also publish an updated list of the remaining team’s in Worlds by their Elo ratings.
Due to tournament structure of Worlds, this ranking is not quite the same as our title projections, but it’s a good proxy. As will become a theme in our LoL coverage, the StatXP model is higher on Flash Wolves than the betting markets. The model gives extra credit to teams in LCK and LPL to account for their dominance, but FW’s 27-1 record in the 2018 LMS regular season and consecutive league titles are hard to ignore.
During the group stage of Main Event we will publish daily standings along with our projections of who will advance to the knock-out tournament.
Predicted wins counts already accrued wins as one point and assigns probabilistic wins for games that haven’t been played yet (so a team with an 80% chance of winning a game would get 0.8 wins). As a remainder, the top 2 teams from each group will advance to the knock-out rounds.
Finally, during the knock-out rounds, we will publish projections of who we expect to advance and ultimately win the 2018 World’s.
The StatXP model is higher on Flash Wolves as compared to betting markets and lower on Royal Never Give Up, but on the whole our findings are similar to what the sharps are saying.
We will post daily updates to account for the morning matches every day around noon eastern time. We hope you’re as excited for the 2018 LoL Worlds as we are and welcome to StatXP!