LoL Worlds 2018 Semifinals Predictions

By Colin Bowers

Filed under eSports

Who can honestly say they saw this coming? LoL Worlds are down to four teams and only one is a Chinese or Korean team. After a solid record of predictions in the group stage, the StatXP model missed on three of the four quarterfinal matchups. Let’s take a quick look our biggest missed teams in the group stage and at how the quarterfinal games show that our model consistently overrated Chinese and Korean teams.

Our conclusion would be that parity is growing in the LoL ranks and past results are not as predictive of future outcomes if this bias was simply the result of the data. However, based on their superior performance in international competitions up to this point, our model seeds Chinese and Korean squads with more Elo points than other leagues in an effort to account for their systemic superiority. We have developed improvements to the model for after Worlds is over. Meanwhile, we have made the decision to lower, but not eliminate, the weighting we gave to Chinese and Korean teams to better predict the winner from the remaining four teams. This modeling discussion is discussed further here.

All that being said, the remaining Asian team is still our highest ranked Elo team. Invictus Gaming was among the tournament favorites coming into Worlds and they’ve done well against a brutal schedule.

Their biggest struggle during the group stage was losing consecutive games to the talented and on fire Fnatic and they upset co-favorite KT Rolster in their quarterfinal matchup. Right now, IG is set up for a finals re-match against their Group D nemesis, FNC.

Cloud9 and G2 Esports have shot up our rankings after scoring upsets in the quarterfinals. C9 dominated the remaining Korean side in Afreeca Freecs and G2 stunned many people’s favorite in Royal Never Give Up. Both teams have defied expectations but our model still urges caution and thinks both will most likely lose this weekend.

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As IG/FNC and C9/G2 have similar Elo rating, our model gives both favorites similar odds to advance. While 30% upsets do happen, our model shows that the most likely LoL final is IG versus FNC. We currently give a slight edge to IG, but a particularly dominant or disappointing performance by either team in the semifinals could change that.

Follow along with StatXP on Twitter (@StatXP) as we continue to model and forecast the 2018 LoL Worlds.