All articles filed under eSports
With 2018 LoL Worlds over, we’re now entering several months without a major League of Legends event to cover. StatXP covers the entirety of eSports and gaming but we’d like to keep our LoL coverage going. Inspired by FiveThirtyEight’s club soccer rankings, we’re going to spin our Elo model forward and keep a running ranking of professional LoL club teams.
And then there were two. After the chaos of the quarterfinal round, order re-emerged at the League of Legends Worlds this past weekend. Both Invictus Gaming and Fnatic won as expected and they both dismissed their overmatched opponents in straight games. We live-blogged both games using our in-game prediction model and neither team’s chances of advancing were ever really in doubt.
Last week, Forbes released an article with some figures on the world’s most valuable esports teams. We took their data and created our analysis.
It's what we've been waiting for...@Cloud9 versus @FNATIC! Semifinals starting NOW! We predict a #FNCWIN with 70% chance to win, but we'll be providing live updates as the game progresses! Stay tuned! #Worlds2018 #lolesports
Get your popcorn everyone! @invgaming versus @G2esports, best of 5 series, #lol #Worlds2018 semifinals is starting! And we're live tweeting match updates! Current prediction: 72% chance to win for @invgaming #BigDataAnalytics
Who can honestly say they saw this coming? LoL Worlds are down to four teams and only one is a Chinese or Korean team. After a solid record of predictions in the group stage, the StatXP model missed on three of the four quarterfinal matchups. A quick look at which teams we missed biggest on in the group stage and quarterfinal games shows that our model consistently overrated China and Korean teams.
StatXP has recently extended our coverage of the League of Legends 2018 World Championships to include live prediction updates as matches are played out! We will be blogging and tweeting these updates during the semifinals and the world championship match. So now, you can see how team actions impact their odds of winning in real time!
StatXP’s first big project upon launching was our ongoing coverage of the 2018 League of Legend World Championships, built around our Elo model. So it was very important that the model do well! And far it has. We did have one huge miss in Flash Wolves. And it’s important to be upfront about your misses. FW was our #1 ranked team entering the tournament and we gave them a 24% chance of winning the whole thing. What happened?
And then there were 8! After an exciting, thrilling, and sometimes disappointing group stage (RIP Flash Wolves), Worlds has moved on to the knockout round. More on this tomorrow, but so far, our Elo model is performing well. Hopefully that continues to through the title game!
After a week of excitement, LoL Worlds group play is nearly over. After our big miss on Flash Wolves, today’s games provided a bit of calm as KT Rolster and EDward Gaming joined the knockout rounds as expected. In fact, both teams clinched their spots with a game each to spare! StatXP predicts a similarly orderly group of games in Group D, with Invictus Gaming and Fnatic advancing for a shot at the championship.
Four teams in for the LoL Worlds knock out rounds are set. And after a terribly disappointing performance in the second round robin of Group A, StatXP pre-tournament favorite is not one of them! We’ll have a more thorough look at Flash Wolves disappointing exit later this week, but for now, suffice it to say that the Elo model is humbled. And has already moved on to new favorites KT Rolster and Invictus Gaming.
The next group to close out group play in Group A. StatXP favorite Flash Wolves was stunned in a backdoor win by G2 Esports, but we still expect FW to win the group and be one of the favorites in the knock-out round.
What a tournament! Each team group has gone through the round robin once and spots in the knock-out round will be given based on what happens over the next four days. In Group A, StatXP favorite Flash Wolves was upset by G2 Esports to give us a tie at the top of the group. Our model still expects FW to advance as the #1 seed, but Afreeca Freecs are also lurking after finally righting the ship against Phong Vu Buffalo.
Three days of Main Event competition at LoL Worlds are over and the four incoming favorites have seized control of the tournament. Flash Wolves, Royal Never Give Up, KT Rolster, and Invictus Gaming (along with play-in star EDwards Gaming) are the only remaining undefeated teams.
Some trends have started to emerge after two days of LoL Worlds Main Event competition. The StatXP favorite, Flash Wolves, and betting markets favorite, Royal Never Give Up, have seized control of their groups and are well on their way to advancing to the knock-out rounds.
One day into Main Event competition and we’ve already had two upsets! StatXP now predicts G2 to advance over Afreeca Freecs despite AF maintaining a superior Elo rating. Follow along with StatXP on Twitter (@StatXP) as we continue to model and forecast the 2018 LoL Worlds.
In addition to predicting individual matches, the StatXP Elo model allows us to predict who will win the 2018 Worlds. We will iterate on these predictions as the tournament progresses and issue a more definitive set of predictions before the knock-out rounds, but here is where things stand right now.
Welcome to StatXP’s coverage of the League of Legends 2018 World Championships. StatXP will be covering Worlds with a daily prediction of the next day’s games (since they occur early in the morning) as well as running team ranking. We will also post daily predictions on who we expect to advance to the knock-out rounds and then who we expect to win once they make it.